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| 应用空间相关分析和圆分布研究中国肺结核时空分布特征 |
| Application of spatial correlation analysis and circular distribution in seasonal and spatial distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in China |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1007-8134.2021.02.014 |
| 中文关键词: 肺结核 圆分布 空间聚集性 空间自相关 |
| 英文关键词: pulmonary tuberculosis circular distribution spatial cluster spatial autocorrelation |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 545 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 研究中国肺结核发病的时空分布规律，为防控肺结核提供依据。方法 收集2013—2017年全国各月肺结核报告发病数据进行圆分布分析，计算平均角，估计发病高峰日，并进行雷氏检验。收集2016年我国各省（自治区和直辖市）的肺结核报告发病率进行全局空间相关性分析和局域空间相关性分析，研究肺结核发病的空间聚集性。结果 中国肺结核报告发病数存在明显的时间集中趋势，发病高峰集中在3—5月。中国肺结核报告发病数圆分布分析存在平均角，经雷氏检验Z=13004.94，P＜0.05。经全局空间相关性分析发现肺结核发病率在我国具有显著的空间聚集性，I=0.487，Z=4.278，P＜0.05。经局域空间相关性分析发现我国肺结核发病率在新疆、青海、西藏及其周围存在空间上的聚集，其他区域未显示出明显的空间聚集性。结论 我国肺结核发病存在时间集中趋势和空间聚集性，肺结核的时空分布特点对肺结核防控有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in China and provide evidence for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods The reporting monthly number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in China from 2013 to 2017 was analyzed by circular distribution method, for calculation of mean angle, estimation of peak incidence day and completion of Rayleigh’s test. The reporting number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China during 2016 was analyzed by the overall and local spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate the spatial clustering of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Results There was an obvious seasonal centralization trend in the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in China. The peak incidence was concentrated from March to May. The circular distribution analysis on the reporting number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases showed the presence of mean angle, as detected by Rayleigh’s test (Z=13004.94, P＜0.05). According to the overall spatial autocorrelation analysis, there was a significant spatial clustering in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in China (I=0.487, Z=4.278, P＜0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated the presence of spatial clustering in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, Tibet Autonomous Region and adjacent areas. No obvious spatial clustering was observed in other areas. Conclusions There are seasonal centralization and spatial clustering characteristics of the reporting incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in China. The seasonal-spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis are of great significance to the prevention of pulmonary tuberculosis. |
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